Friday, April 07, 2006

Indo US nuclear deal

Folks - time for some serious talk. I have been following the Indo-US nuke deal of lately. The first question that came to my mind was what does the US gain from this deal. On closer scrutiny, got a few answers. A summary to unravel the mystery. Dedicated to the time I killed discussing this with myself.

The India US nuclear deal has generated a lot of interest worldwide - both negatively and positively. The recent visit by president bush to India, and his show of desire to complete the deal with India has raised a lot of hopes for a quick closure. However, on the flip side, the scepticism in the US congress is acting as a dampener to the otherwise quick progress. The deal is a clear indication of a changing US opinion of India, a strong signal that the two of the world's largest democracies have moved ahead of the 1998-post pokhran bitterness.

The two parties for the deal have lots to take home from this deal. India's ever growing energy demands stare straight into the face of policy makers. A nuclear power enriched India could not have been a possibility at a more appropriate time than this. India continues to grow over 7.5 percent over the last year and its is expected to grow at the same or even higher rate in the years to come, energy demands are increasing manifolds. The traditional sources of energy like thermal energy are becoming expensive due to the rise of the cost of crude and coal. Nuclear energy would provide the much desired respite from the ever increasing energy prices and a lack of supply of adequate power.

Washington is now expecting India to be a major ally and a hedge against the growing Chinese influence in South Asia. They have come to realize that denying India fissile power would make china more influential in the region. India comes as a natural choice for this role for various reasons. India is the next most strong economic power in the region and a democratic setup similar to the US. Washington's cold-war era ally - Pakistan suffers from its own kitty of problems especially the threat of nuclear technology being sold out to what US considers rouge nations like Iran and terrorist outfits like al-qaeda.

India's close ties with Iran is also a concern for the white house. The US realizes that India's close relations with Iran are a result of the supplier consumer relationship built due to the trade of oil and natural gas between the two countries. With a self sufficient India, US hopes to alienate Iran of any potential support by India to Iran's nuclear policy.

The criticism against the proposed deal is born mainly out of the fact that the deal does not talk about India signing the NPT (non proliferation treaty). This is being seen as a major shift by president Bush from United States' Nuclear policy. The deal allows India to open only 11 out of the 18 nuclear reactors for international monitoring. Moreover, it is solely india's discretion to classify future reactors as civil or military. This has not gone down well with the US senators and it will take a lot of wooing by the likes of Condoleeza Rice to establish India as a reliable ally of the United states.

No comments: